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Jet-to-Let Magazine
E-Newsletter 30th November 2007

Dominic FarrellDear Investor

It’s been a busy couple of weeks since the last e-newsletter.  I had a pleasant trip to Cyprus last week and enjoyed immensely the 26C temperature and sunny skies.  I also secured another large plot of land for the development company and hope to add further to our land bank if negotiations are successful on another.  We are on course to achieve the company objective for 2007 of acquiring sufficient quality land for a Gross Development Value (GDV) of over £100 million sterling.

It was also interesting to note that the latest published house price inflation index for Cyprus has prices rising by almost 4% last month leading to a year on year rise of 17.5%.  With the adoption of the Euro only weeks away, this trend will continue.

I attended an excellent conference for property developers in London last Monday and in particular the prevailing view on the UK property market was almost unanimous – that we can expect a correction of property prices rather than a crash.

The credit crunch still permeates financial markets resulting in large swings (high volatility) in stock indices on both sides of the Atlantic.  Banks are receiving loans from unusual quarters and Richard Branson wants to buy Northern Rock.  Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, made a speech last night which points strongly to a cut in the target Fed Funds rate (base rates) next month which should see a strong start on Wall St this afternoon.

I was in Berlin on Tuesday looking at a fantastic apartment block, before flying back to attend a Barclays Wealth dinner in the City which was followed by a high powered panel discussion, chaired by Radio 4’s Today programme host James Naughtie, on investing in times of uncertainty.  There will be more on this theme in the January issue of Jet-to-Let Magazine.

The development company will be exhibiting at the Overseas Property Professional (OPP) show next week at the Excel Centre in London.  It is open Tuesday and Wednesday and is a business-to-business event where developers, agents, currency providers and property professionals meet.  We are exhibiting to expand our network of agents for the development company.

I am off to New York Christmas shopping after the OPP event next week, so will not be back in the office until mid December.  There will be one more e-newsletter before the Group closes down for Christmas from 1230hrs Wednesday 19th December to 0900hrs Thursday 3rd January 2008.  The new expanded Jet-to-Let Magazine will be posted to your home or office Friday 18th January 2008.

Have a great weekend

dominic farrell

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Latest Property Investment News

UK property market 'turning down'

UK house prices saw their biggest fall in 12 years during November, mortgage lender Nationwide has said.

The firm's data suggests the cost of an average home slid by 0.8% from a month earlier - the first drop in price seen since February last year.

The annual rate of house price inflation now stands at 6.9%, down from 9.7% reported in October.

At the same time, the Bank of England said the number of mortgage approvals fell to a near three-year low.

According to the Bank's latest report, 88,000 new mortgages for home buyers were approved in October, 12% lower than in September and down 31% from October a year ago.

Downturn

Mortgage approvals are a key indicator of near-term activity in the housing market, and alongside those from the Nationwide, point to a rapid downturn in the market, analysts said.

The data "confirms that the housing market is indeed cooling," Nationwide's chief economist Fionnuala Earley said.

"Poor affordability, weaker house price growth expectations and the effect of earlier increases in interest rates have all affected demand in the market," she added.

The 0.8% slide in prices seen in November is the biggest reported by the Nationwide since June 1995.

According to the building society's calculations, the cost of the average property in the UK is now £186,044, nearly £12,000 more than this time last year.

However, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) has suggested that the downturn may not be as sharp as it seemed, and that it was being amplified by problems in the global money markets.

Banks are having to pay more to borrow money, and as a result are cutting back on the amount of cash they lend and are asking for higher rates of return when they do approve loans.

Some analysts have called for more cash to be pumped into the money markets to help banks fund their business.

"We would like the government and the Bank of England to consider how best to unblock the funding log-jam that some UK lenders are experiencing, so that they can continue to fully meet consumer demand," said the CML's director general Michael Coogan.

'Recession unlikely'

All indicators now suggest that house sales are going through a sharp downturn, while house price inflation is slowing quickly.

As well as a slump in mortgage approvals, surveyors have reported a continuing drop in enquiries from would-be buyers.

"However, we still expect most of the fall-out from the current round of turmoil in credit markets to be felt in terms of lower levels of activity rather than outright house price declines," said Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics).

Even parts of the country that seemed immune from the general deflating of the market have now been affected.

This week, the Land Registry reported that house prices in England and Wales were rising at a rate of 8.1%.

Crucially, it suggested that prices in London, which until now had been shooting ahead of the national average, had started to slow as well.

However Ms Earley said an outright recession in the property market was unlikely.

"With interest rates on the way down and the continued issue of undersupply of housing in the UK market, the underlying fundamentals are perhaps more positive than the recent swings in sentiment might suggest," she said.

Source: BBC

Latest Jet-to-Let Economic Data

International Base Rates

UK 5.75%
US 4.5%
Eurozone 4%
Japan 0.5%
Swiss (LIBOR) 2.75%

Foreign Exchange Rates

GBP / USD 2.06
GBP / EUR 1.477
GBP / CHF 2.3165
GBP / JPY 228.86
Data correct as of 30th November 2007 12:00 GMT
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