Dear Investor,
The Economy, UK PLC et al
Some economic data is up and some economic data is down, but where are we going? Well, we are in a bit of a Phoney War at the moment, as we await the outcome of the General Election, which as I have predicted for some time, is not a foregone conclusion for either side. In fact, according to the opinion polls, the middle way (i.e. a hung parliament) is a possibility. Well, just like economic data, opinion polls fluctuate too and so the only vote that counts will be on election day, whenever that is (the 6th May is looking like the hot favourite). Unless the Tories can credibly differentiate themselves from Labour they are still likely to struggle. Although the electorate are tired of the incumbents, they will need to have compelling reasons to trust the Tories with the economy, their jobs, the NHS and other public services. If there is little difference between key policies which matter to the public, the old economic paradigm of “better the devil you know” is likely to prevail.
Why does it matter? It matters because we will soon know the inevitable changes in fiscal policy and how the new government will tackle our Greek like deficit! This will have implications for unemployment, inflation, interest rates, sterling and financial markets amoungst other things I think the sooner we have the election, the better it is for the country. But as we all know politics doesn’t work that way.
The economy has technically moved out of recession, but at 0.1% growth I wouldn’t be jumping for joy just yet. However, manufacturing data released this week has beaten expectations which suggests that the GDP figure for 4Q 2009 will be revised upwards.
The UK’s competitors such as Germany and France came out of recession 6 months ago and their growth has been stronger than that of the UK. Those of us who argued against joining the Euro have been vindicated: if we had adopted the Euro (as Blair wanted) we would be a true basket case now with a seriously overvalued currency weighing down the rest of the EU just as Greece is now. In the past the likes of Spain and Greece could devalue their currencies to get out of trouble, but this is no longer possible as both are locked into the Euro, at least for the time being.
In times of uncertainty investors have traditionally reverted to tangible assets such as real estate and gold, today is no different. Although we have seen a recovery in UK property prices over the past 12 months, I think the market will consolidate and further opportunities will present themselves in the form of distressed assets (bank repossessed properties). The latest numbers for repossessed properties are published later today, but one thing is for sure, there will be opportunities for those who know where to find them.
What’s going on in Liverpool?
Since the last newsletter we have been extremely busy as a Group, positioning ourselves as the UK property market recovers and moving to take some excellent opportunities as they have arisen. We are presently expanding the UK operation and will launch a new brand identity shortly, which will encompass the range of services we now provide including:
Financial Services
Fund Management
UK Property Acquisition
Overseas Property Acquisition
Distressed Assets
In addition, we will continue to provide our training courses, seminars and conferences.
The property development company will remain a stand-alone entity.
I would like to welcome David Tickle to the team. David is a qualified mortgage broker and joins our financial services division, more of which you will hear about in the future.
Distressed Assets’ Repossessed Property Conference London – 30 Jan 10
"As a property investor I found the Distressed Assets conference to be extremely useful. The content was very relevant ranging from tax and lettings advice to raising finance and, most importantly, covered detail on the UK market in bank repossessed property. I would recommend the conference to anyone with an interest in financially distressed property"
Sanjiv Dodhia
InvestinCyprus.com Developers
Stephanie and Jon are presently with the Cyprus team and attended the monthly site meeting yesterday. The Grove Spa Resort continues to attract a lot of interest and is moving forward well.
Diary Date:
Due to the huge success of the Distressed Assets London Conference, we will be holding a Northern Conference in Liverpool on Sat 15th May 2010. Further details to follow.
Best wishes